July 3, 2009

Bye Bye Green Shoots?


After yesterday's dismal employment report, pundits have started pronouncing the green shoots mantra dead and buried. Technically though, things are not that clear. Even after yesterday's brutal sell-off, we are still above significant support areas. As can be seen in the chart above (click to enlarge), the S&P500 might be in the process of forming a Head and Shoulder formation (the neckline is the blue line in the chart) but for the (bearish) H&S to be completed, the index would have to break 888 decisively. And even if it does, there is still that line-in-the-sand support above 875 to contend with (orange line in the chart).

So, granted the momentum has turned quite drastically and there are a lot of scared bulls out there as well as highly motivated (and well-capitalized) bears, but the war between those two groups is still going on and the outcome is not yet clear.

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