March 14, 2009

Do Not Suppress That Urge

Finally! A contrarian bullish headline in this week's Barron's: Michael Santolli's warning to "Suppress That Urge to Call the Bottom". This from a journalist, although plenty smart, who thought he was seeing subtle bullish clues every step of the way down, pretty much since the beginning of this monster of a bear market. And here he is telling us to be very careful this time around, that this rally may be a bull trap.

So let me get this straight: each and every bear market rally over the past year and a half could have been the real thing but this one right here is most likely not the bottom? Hmmm. Methinks 666 could very well turn out to be, if not THE bottom, at least a serious medium-term low for the S&P 500. I leave to others the debate over the ominous nature (or not) of that number and what it portends for the future...

Now all we need is for Gene Epstein to become pessimistic on the economy and it'll be an all-clear to buy this market!

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