March 7, 2009

The Deluded Uber-Bulls

Do you remember how ridiculed and laughed at the so-called uber-bears were during the most recent bull market? Well, nobody's laughing now.

The irony is that the current secular uber-bear market has spawned a new species: the uber-bulls. No matter how bad things look, no matter how many jobs are lost and how fast the market disintegrates, the uber-bulls see prosperity right around the corner. They see glimmers of hope in the darkest recesses of the economy. Naturally, just as the uber-bears used to become more bearish as the stock market soldiered on up, the uber-bulls become more and more optimistic as the economy and the markets keeps crumbling.

Case in point, Barron's Gene Epstein, who is fast becoming the most prominent and deluded of the uber-bulls. This is how he concludes his sunny review of this month's dismal employment numbers:
"At the end of this dark tunnel, a few rays of light may just be visible."

I sincerely hope he's right...although hope has been an increasingly unreliable sentiment to believe in lately. The uber-bulls will be right eventually and things will turn around. The big question, and one that no amount of wishful thinking will help answer, is when.

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