March 11, 2009

QQQQ Double Bottom?

The Dow and the S&P 500 might have made new lows recently but the Nasdaq hasn't. As you can see in the chart above (click to enlarge) QQQQ, the Nasdaq 100 ETF, looks like it completed a double bottom this week. The 11/21/2008 intraday low of 25.05 was not breached on Monday and, with the slow stochastic indicator turning up from deep oversold, we could see a sustained rebound in the next few days (maybe weeks). The 20 and 50-day simple moving averages, around 28 and 29 respectively, are the next logical resistance but after that, the road is clear until the mighty 200-day simple moving average (around 37 these days).

The one caveat is that volume was underwhelming yesterday to say the least. It might just mean that the impetus for this rebound was coming from outside the Nasdaq stocks (indeed it came from the financial sector) and not necessarily that it lacked conviction.

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