September 1, 2009

Financials Vs. S&P 500


(Click to enlarge)

This is the daily chart for XLF, the financials ETF, relative to SPY, the S&P 500 ETF. It's interesting to note that the 50-day moving average (of XLF/SPY) very recently crossed over the 200-day moving average, which confirms the financial sector's outperformance over the overall market.

As a reminder, the 50-day MA crossed under the 200-day MA back in March 2007, signaling a financial sector underperformance. Obviously, as an overall market sell signal, that was a little early as the market as a whole kept going up until October 2007, so I'm not saying this is an all-clear buy signal. That would be premature, especially as we enter a historically turbulent time of the year. It is however an interesting piece of evidence that the market internals are changing in a major way.

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