September 28, 2009

Kahneman on Cutting Losses


In this great interview, Daniel Kahneman - one of the fathers, with Amos Tversky, of behavioral economics - on why it's so hard to cut your losses (he's talking about war but could have just as easily been talking about trading, or life in general for that matter):
People in general don't like cutting their losses. They're willing to gamble on in the hope of recovering their losses, and that is a very well known characteristic of individual decision making, and in national decision making it's exacerbated because the national leaders who have led the country close to defeat, for them there is really nothing further to be lost by putting more at risk. There is a real divergence of interest between national leaders and their communities when the time to cut losses arises, because cutting losses is rarely beneficial to the decision maker.

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