While laziness has certainly played a role in my not having updated my last post on the subject in over 6 months, another reason (or excuse if you will) is that, despite the ups and downs (mainly ups) of the market, the many scary dramas (Russian roulette with the debt ceiling culminating with the government shutdown, the Syrian crisis, etc...), the key personnel changes (Janet Yellen's taking over of the Fed being the most notable) and other news-related or corporate developments, things have not changed from a Technical Analysis viewpoint.
Which is to say, we are still in the midst of a Bull market that started in March 2009, and nothing that has transpired to this date would suggest otherwise. While I am not a Technical Analysis absolutist in that I do not believe TA is the ultimate predictive model, I feel it is an excellent descriptive one. I am also obligated to add the disclaimer that what was true at the end of last month may be wrong at the end of the current one. In other words, markets evolve (sometimes much faster than others) and therefore, so do outlooks.
To make my point and for the sake of continuity, I will use, once again, the 20-year monthly chart of the Dow Jones Industrial Average with only one technical indicator (Bollinger Bands with the default 20-period/2-standard-deviation setting). The chart (which is basically a moving 20-year window) will this time be covering the 02/28/1994 to 02/28/2014 period (click chart to enlarge):
To Be Continued...
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