The "Conservative" and "Liberal" Semantic Switcharoo.

The concept that the meanings of "conservative" and "liberal" should alternate every generation is a fascinating and intriguing one. It challenges the idea that political ideologies are static and fixed, and instead suggests that they are influenced by cultural, social, and historical contexts that change over time.

To understand this idea, it's essential to first understand the meanings of "conservative" and "liberal" and how they have evolved over time. The terms "conservative" and "liberal" originated during the Enlightenment era and were primarily used to describe attitudes towards political and economic freedom. The term "conservative" referred to those who supported traditional social and economic institutions and were opposed to change, while the term "liberal" referred to those who supported political and economic freedom and were open to change.

Over time, the meanings of these terms have shifted and expanded. In the United States, for example, "conservative" has come to encompass a broad range of political and social views, including support for limited government, free-market economics, traditional values, and strong national defense. "Liberal" has similarly expanded to include a range of views, including support for social welfare programs, environmental protection, civil rights, and individual freedoms.

The idea that the meanings of "conservative" and "liberal" alternate every generation suggests that what is considered conservative in one generation can become liberal in the next, and vice versa. This is because political ideologies are not fixed and are influenced by a range of cultural, social, and historical factors that change over time. For example, attitudes towards civil rights, gender, and the environment have shifted considerably over the past few decades, with some viewpoints becoming more widely accepted and incorporated into mainstream political discourse.

The alternate interpretation of the terms "conservative" and "liberal" every generation has several implications for how we think about political discourse and engage with different political perspectives. First, it highlights the importance of considering the historical and cultural context of political ideologies. By recognizing that political ideologies are not fixed and can change over time, we can better understand why people hold certain beliefs and values, and how these have evolved over time.

Second, it emphasizes the importance of engaging with different political perspectives and considering alternative viewpoints. By recognizing that what is considered conservative or liberal can change over time, we can appreciate the value of different perspectives and learn from those who hold different beliefs and values.

Third, it highlights the importance of being open to change and embracing new ideas and perspectives. By recognizing that political ideologies are not fixed and can evolve over time, we can be more open to change and willing to embrace new ideas and perspectives, rather than being bound by tradition and the status quo.

In conclusion, the idea that the meanings of "conservative" and "liberal" should alternate every generation challenges the notion that political ideologies are fixed and unchanging. It highlights the importance of considering the historical and cultural context of political ideologies, engaging with different political perspectives, and being open to change and new ideas. By embracing these principles, we can better understand political discourse and build a more inclusive and dynamic political culture

Long-form experiment with ChatGPT (#1)

I fed a previous post from 2018 ("So you want to be a profitable trader") to ChatGPT and got the following:

 In today's fast-paced, consumerist society, it's easy to get caught up in the pursuit of material possessions, approval from others, and comparison to others. However, this constant striving for external validation can lead to feelings of inadequacy and anxiety, and prevent us from living a fulfilling and authentic life.

Instead, by focusing on perfecting one's skills and cultivating a desire for freedom, we can unlock our true potential and achieve a sense of fulfillment that is not dependent on external factors.

First and foremost, it's important to address the desire for material possessions. While it's natural to want a certain level of comfort and security, the constant acquisition of more and more things can become a never-ending cycle of dissatisfaction. By embracing a more minimalist lifestyle, we can cut out the excess and focus on what truly matters.

This doesn't mean we have to give up all of our belongings and live like monks. Rather, it's about being intentional about what we own and choosing quality over quantity. We can also learn to appreciate the simple things in life, like spending time with loved ones or enjoying a beautiful sunset.

Next, we need to address the desire for approval from others. This can be a particularly difficult habit to break, as we are social creatures who crave connection and validation. However, by constantly seeking approval from others, we are giving away our power and relying on external factors to determine our worth.

Instead, we should focus on building a strong sense of self-worth and confidence. This can be achieved by setting and achieving personal goals, engaging in activities we enjoy, and surrounding ourselves with positive and supportive people.

It's also important to recognize that not everyone will approve of us or our choices, and that's okay. We don't have to please everyone, and in fact, trying to do so can be exhausting and counterproductive.

Finally, we need to address the tendency to compare ourselves to others. In today's age of social media, it's all too easy to fall into the trap of comparing our lives to the carefully curated images of others. This can lead to feelings of inadequacy and self-doubt.

Instead, we should focus on our own unique talents and interests, and work to develop our skills and pursue our passions. By focusing on our own growth and development, we can find fulfillment and meaning that goes beyond external validation.

This is not to say that we should isolate ourselves from others or ignore the achievements of those around us. Rather, it's about recognizing that we each have our own journey and our own path to follow.

In conclusion, by cutting out the desire for material possessions, approval from others, and comparison to others, we can unlock our true potential and achieve a sense of fulfillment that is not dependent on external factors. It's about focusing on what truly matters, and cultivating a deep sense of purpose and meaning in our lives. By doing so, we can achieve a level of freedom and fulfillment that is truly priceless.

Follow me on Twitter.

 For more musings about trading and so much more, give my Twitter page a follow.

You won't regret it!

So You Want to Be a Profitable Trader?

Here's as good an answer to the question above as I've found in a while. Excerpt:

Kill the desire for material stuff outside of the basic, kill the desire for someone’s approval, kill the comparison to others. The only desire that should be left is to perfect ones skill and desire to be free. Cut out all else you long for.

Greatest Investment-Related Tweet of All Time

This may very well be it. When it rains, it pours: how about this one!

A Purely Technical Analysis of Bitcoin From a Famed Technical Analyst

(Full Disclosure: I do not own any cryptocurrencies, nor do I encourage anyone of owning cryptocurrencies. It is illegal to do so in many countries, so do your own careful due diligence. Stay informed of the laws and regulations of your country of residence so as not to do anything illegal. What follows is for information only.)

For a technical analyst (not boasting but I am a Chartered Market Technician, as is Michael Kahn of Barron's, the author of the quoted passage below), the insane moves of Bitcoin are heaven sent for applying the dark arts on. 

Mr. Kahn has written a great article doing just that on 12/28/2017 at 3:27 pm U.S. Eastern Time. Noting the exact date of the article is of the utmost importance with such a fast-changing financial instrument. I'm not crazy enough to endorse his analysis. Do as I did, read it with a grain of salt. 

He's an honest, experienced and extremely competent technical analyst. But, as I always said, technical analysis is a great tool for describing price action, it is however much less adept at predicting price action. So do your own due diligence and, as with all very volatile financial products, think loss protection and ruin avoidance first and foremost. I strongly discourage anyone from investing more than a very small percentage of their risk capital in bitcoin-related products, simply because the probability of losing it all is very high. Avoiding them altogether would also be a smart strategy! 

I must admit, however, that following the gyrations of cryptocurrencies on a chart, with a few technical indicators (Bollinger Bands, 11-period and 22-period Exponential Moving Averages), using Japanese Candles and, most important of all, a logarithmic scale, is fascinating to any pure technical analyst worth his or her salt!

Let me end this entry with an excerpt from Michael Kahn's post (he is, which is a good indication of his professionalism and competence, very careful about all his pronouncements):

"[...] With bitcoin, there are no analyst guesstimates about future earnings. There are no interest-rate worries. There are no macro- or micro-economic concerns to distract from the charts. And there are no artificial market hours to create trading surges at regulated times.

As Chris Carolan, proprietor of SpiralCalendar.com, put it, “The bitcoin time series is the purest expression of human fear and greed response cycles ever constructed.”

Carolan also pointed out that trading action since the start of the year followed an arc based on the Fibonacci series. He called it a chart of mathematical perfection and generously posted it on his Twitter feed for all to see.

Without getting too wonky, the Fibonacci series of numbers from the world of mathematics describes many natural phenomena from the spiraling of a snail’s shell and how flower petals sit around their center all the way up to how galaxies are built. It makes sense that it would also describe how a purely technical market trades.

The bad news for crypto enthusiasts is that bitcoin broke its Fibonacci arc to the downside. Similar to the break of a major trendline or moving average, it tells us the glory days for bitcoin are over -- at least for a while.

Moving back to my simpler chart projections, the larger December head-and-shoulders pattern on the daily chart targets about $8,760 on the downside. That’s not even close to a 90% crash but we’ll have to see what happens if and when the market gets there.

Further, as with all speculative frenzies, the fall tends to erase the entire speculative run-up. For me, the final phase began in November at about $8,100. Therefore, a good first target zone is in the mid-$8,000s give or take a healthy percentage.

Remarkably, that only takes the market back to late November. While a hefty 50% price retracement, it is not much of a time retracement.

If we consider that the speculative phase started in May at a price of about $1,400, going back to November would only be a one-month pullback in an eight-month rally. The big problem for bitcoin investors is that the downside target could be as low as $1,400 as this whole fever unwinds. In my November column, I suggested $1,200 was the number.

If you think this matches the trajectory of the Dutch Tulip Bulb bubble and crash of 400 years ago, you may be right.

For now, I do not want to tell the market where it needs to go. The signs suggest -- at least for now -- that there is significant downside ahead. However, at the same time, they do not tell us whether it will merely be a correction or the end of bitcoin as we think we know it.

Should the market find its legs soon and climb back above resistance at about $16,000, then all bearish bets have to be taken down. In that case, maybe an upside target of $25,000 would be conservative.

Ulysses S. Grant's Biography by Ron Chernow

I can't recommend enough the new massive Ulysses S. Grant biography by Ron Chernow (who penned the biography of Hamilton that was the basis for Lin-Manuel Miranda's celebrated Broadway Musical of the same name; he also participated in the writing of the musical). I greatly enjoyed Chernow's biographies of J.P. Morgan and John D. Rockefeller.

It is essential reading for U.S. history lovers. It contains so many aspects of the Civil War and Reconstruction that are not generally known and shed a new contrarian light on so many historical episodes that it's mind-boggling: so many good deeds, so many missed opportunities, so much bloodshed. It also goes a long away toward explaining many aspects of the racial problems America has had to contend with to this very day. And in that sense, it is essential reading to anyone wanting to put a cogent narrative upon many things that have been going on lately. Anything that contributes to a better understanding of the history of the world and therefore could possibly prevent us from repeating historical mistakes of grievous consequences is a blessing.

Forget everything I just said, just get the book, in any form or shape (paper, electronic, audio), and read it.

This is one history book that will keep you on the edge of your seat from beginning to end and enlighten you.

The Scientific Method and its Intentional Twisting by Professional Doubt Merchants

This is probably the best article I've read on the Scientific Method, its beauty, its limits and its intentional twisting by professional doubt merchants of all ilks from Tobacco Companies to Climate Change deniers.

"Doubt merchants aren’t pushing for knowledge, they’re practicing what Proctor has dubbed “agnogenesis” — the intentional manufacture of ignorance. This ignorance isn’t simply the absence of knowing something; it’s a lack of comprehension deliberately created by agents who don’t want you to know, Proctor said"