The chart above (click to enlarge), TLT daily, looks like a failed head and shoulder. Failing to pierce through the neckline at 87, it has been rebounding fairly strongly since 04/13 and closed the month at 88.75. I also like the rising 200-day Moving Average. All in all, a bullish case in the making. I'll be keeping an eye on good old TLT, my favourite bond ETF. I feel compelled to add a little fundamental background: the economy is apparently slowing much faster than expected (the latest reading on GDP growth came in at 1.3% annualized, I believe) and even though inflation is not exactly where the Fed would like it to be, Big Ben might just have to cut rates, which would fit in the bullish scenario for TLT.

I just discovered this pretty cool blog: Toro's Running of the Bulls Market Blog.
Smart outside-the-box unpretentious commentary. Frequent posts also....I'm jealous.

As a former day trader who had, by necessity as well as by inclination, to go from a 5-minute chart time frame to a 30-minute chart time frame (the latter corresponds to a time horizon of a few days to a few weeks), I was captivated by this article on "The price of everything" blog, dealing specifically with the importance of time horizon and time horizon arbitrage in trading.

Very good article in this week's Economist on volatility and an even better take on said article by a semi-retired pro on the " Information Arbitrage" blog.

The daily chart above is not that of an ETF but it might as well be, considering its weight within many indices and its liquidity. "It" is MSFT, Microsoft, formerly known as the Evil Empire, before Google started having a go at the title. Ok, that was it for the fundamental analysis part.

Now as far as technical analysis is concerned, there are a few things I find interesting about this chart, the most important one being the price level at which the most recent bearish move stopped, around 27 on 3/13/2007. That's about where MSFT was trading at the day before it cratered and gapped down on humonguous volume on 4/28/2006. (I forget the impetus or should I say the excuse behind that major bailout from the stock, but does it matter?) As often happens, that level seems to have become solid support once it was overcome as resistance sometime in September 2006. That price level also happened to intersect with a nicely rising 200-day Moving Average line (blue on the chart). A successful retest of that very Moving Average occured on 3/28/2007 after which we made a new local high yesterday setting a pattern of higher highs and higher lows all this starting on 3/13. Does all this add up to a fairly solid bullish case? I think so.

The Google weekly is just shown for its 14-day RSI which is in the process of rebounding off its 40 level, an event that has generally been the prelude for a rally.

The daily (click on charts to enlarge) shows us how GOOG rebounded off its 200-day simple moving average and has almost filled the gap caused by the 2/27/2007 global market meltdown (what a difference 3 weeks make). One also notices a bullish dynamic of higher lows and higher highs starting with the 3/5/07 low at 437. Last but far from least, the blue downtrending resistance line has decidedly been broken over the past 2 trading days. All this amounts to a stock that could get near its all-time high above 500 in short order, especially considering its resilience in the face of negative news background (what with the Viacom lawsuit heard around the world and all that).

Finally, USO, the oil ETF is shown above (click to enlarge). Even though I'm out of the ETF, I tought it interesting to take a second look. As per an earlier entry, USO's bullish move looked cooked right below resistance at 50 but then it had a second wind, made it durably above 50 and now has 55 in its sights. It's now trading a bit above 51 so that a bullish strategy with a stop just below 50 and a target just below 55 seems reasonable to me.

Now on to GLD, the gold ETF and there isn't that much to say here. As indicated above (click to enlarge), it appears that GLD is trapped (that is a good thing for those of us who own it) in a rising channel and as long as that's the case, I see no reason to alter my bullish view. Adding to any long position at this level would not be a bad idea with a clear stop on that added part at 62.4, below the local low established on 3/5.