December 28, 2006


An update on GLD.
Shown above is the daily chart as of December 28, 2006 (click on chart to enlarge). We are at a critical juncture and for those of us who are long, partial profit-taking is in order.
My preferred interpretation of the technical picture is as follows:
The entire consolidation from the 5/12/2006 all-time high of 72.26 is an ABC correction as indicated on the chart. The bullish case established with the decisive break of a falling trendline on 10/30/2006 is therefore alive and well and the 12/1/2006 high at 65.55 is but an intermediate high on the way to a test of the all-time high. A break of the 65.55 high would confirm this scenario.

I would be lacking in intellectual honesty if I didn't mention an alternative scenario also alluded to on the chart above:
In that scenario, the 12/1/2006 high would be point D of an ABCDE correction. The area I circled in red could actually be a Head and Shoulder in the making with the right shoulder being spawned at this very moment. This scenario would come into play should GLD break the 12/18/2006 low of 60.65 (incidently a hammer). Should that happen, GLD should then test support at around 55 before rebounding and resuming its bullish progression at a later time.
Stay tuned.

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