Two reasons for my week-long silence: lack of inspiration and confusion about this market. Or is that one reason only?
I had pinned down 149 as key support for SPY and 149 was broken on 6/26. But in a typical twist, it was broken after the close during the 4-4:15 SPY trading window. The following day, SPY proceeded to open at 148.29 and rally from there above 149 therefore negating the sell signal. So basically, we're back to square one, trapped in that 2-month long 149-154 range.
The weekly chart above is showing SMH, the semi-conductors ETF. Many bloggers have pointed out the strength (relative and absolute) of that particular sector. I wanted to show how close SMH was to breaking out of a 5-year old downtrend represented by a pale blue line on the chart. I would say that breaking the 40 level and staying above it for more than a few days would qualify.
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