November 23, 2007

The unknown knowns

I have a couple of thoughts on the "black swan theory" and Taleb's thesis in general.
Doesn't it simply boil down to a belief in miracles? And isn't it a step backward? Once upon a time, most people did believe in miracles, i.e. very low probability events. A scientific revolution and more than a hundred years later, most people have stopped believing in miracles and are much more rational and sceptical. But on balance, I would say that people still believe in miracles more than they should and more education, more knowledge are needed to make us more realistic, less prone to irrational hopes and magical thinking. Here comes Taleb who would like humanity to go back to the Dark Ages and start believing in miracles again. Isn't a black swan just a fancy new name for what people used to call miracles?

My second (disorganized) thought is less a criticism of Taleb's thesis and more an avenue for further musings. Taleb likes to talk about the known unknowns and the unknown unknowns, the latter being basically the so-called black swans. How about the unknown knowns, in other words, the thinks we don't even know we know? I would think that those unknown knowns are the same thing as intuition or instinct. I guess a book such as Blink by Malcom Gladwell did cover just that.

2 comments:

Mike G said...

Or how about known unkown knowns?

http://www.portfolio.com/executives/features/2007/11/19/Blaine-Lourd-Profile#page1

Isam Laroui said...

ummm, let me think about this one...
thanks for the article.