June 13, 2008

DBA, what else?


A long idea for a change. DBA, an agricultural ETF (a commodity play, what else?), has been in a sustained long-term uptrend as evidenced by its sharply rising 200-day simple moving average (blue line in the chart above-click to enlarge) but has been consolidating for the past few months.

It certainly looks like the consolidation is over after this week's explosive bull move. DBA decisively broke out above its now rising 20-day and 50-day moving averages and above resistance at 40. A new high above 43.50 should be in the cards soon with a workable protective sell stop right below 37 where both the 20-day and the 50-day are now residing. Keep in mind that the sell stop should be moved up every few days or so to follow either the 20-day moving average or the 50-day moving average if you feel as I do that this position needs more breathing room.

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