July 20, 2008

Long-Term Bears Watch Out

This chart (click on it to actually see something) should give pause to any rabid, long-term, it's-only-down-from-here, this-market-is-never-coming-back type of bear. On the weekly chart, the Dow Jones Industrial Average successfully tested a major rising support line. It broke it intra-week but that only makes it all the more important that support did hold on a weekly basis.

Adding to the bullish evidence the facts that:

- it did it with the highest volume in months
- the latest 2 weekly bars form a bullish engulfing pattern
- the 14-week RSI is turning up from an oversold level

and one can honestly argue that a very significant low was established this week.

Now I haven't turned bullish all of a sudden. For that a lot of technical things must happen such as the May high must be taken out and this past week's low must be successfully tested and we're far far from that yet. I'm just saying this could be the start of a multi-month bullish move and... just be careful on the short side.

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