September 12, 2008

Miners Anyone?

This is one ugly-looking chart (for longs, that is).
GDX, the gold miners ETF, has been destroyed 52% from an intraday high of 56.87 reached on 03/14/2008 to an intraday low of 27.35 witnessed yesterday. Obviously, trying to call a bottom here would be akin to catching the proverbial falling knife (or falling safe depending on which version you prefer).

However, the adventurous soul could do much worse than start building a long-term position, add to one or simply go for a quick rebound at these price levels. Why? Well, just because, as incredible as it may seem and as wrong as I might be proven, I am seeing a few bullish signs in this chart.

First, GDX has seen some monster relative volume the past few days, potentially indicating some type of capitulation.

Second, we have a classic RSI bullish divergence, i.e. a new low in the stock that does not lead to a new low in the 14-day RSI.

Third, and purists could fault me for mixing my Technical Analysis schools as one mixes their metaphors, from an Elliott Wave viewpoint, it looks to me like we've completed wave 5 of an ABC correction.

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