(Click to enlarge SPY chart)
Head and Shoulder bottom? Not exactly. Symmetrical triangle resolved to the downside is more like it. Waited till the end of the week to be able to say that it had "decisively" broken to the downside. As far as measurements, my calculations tell me that the height of the triangle is 100.86 (11/04 high) minus 74.34 (11/21 low) equals 26.52. Let's subtract that from the break point of 82.74 (2/13 low) and we obtain a projected value for SPY of.....56.22.
Yes it is a stunningly low number (equivalent to around 560 on the S&P 500). But remember, technical analysis is not a science (and here I will spare you the usual platitude about it being an art). It's a series of more or less complex and high tech calculations (the triangle falls into the low complexity, low tech category) based on empirical observations that should be used as a helpful tool to guide your trading decisions.
There, I got my disclaimer in.
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