In the latest Barron's, James Paulsen, chief strategist at Wells Capital Management, is contrarian bullish and has been since last March. He also has an interesting take on deficits.
His scenario for the economy?
If inflation remains in check or rises only slightly, then we have a real shot at a prolonged secular bull market. The key will be keeping inflation under control a couple of years out, when the recovery is in full swing.
Is he concerned about the deficits? (emphasis mine)
I don't think we're in an Armageddon situation. [...] If you look back in U.S. economic history, the five years after the deficit peaks invariably have torrid growth. Same for the peak in unemployment, which we recently hit. Remember: President Clinton left us in the late 1990s with budget surpluses and low employment, yet the succeeding decade was nothing to write home about in terms of either growth or stock-market performance.
No comments:
Post a Comment