June 20, 2007

J.C. Penney in trouble?


This is the daily chart for J.C. Penney (click to enlarge).
This could be a head and shoulder pattern in the making in which case an initial target would be something around 65. This chart does have many bearish things going for it (or against it if you're bullish-minded). A solid support at 75 was broken, the 200-day moving average (which often acts as support, as it did in mid-May) was broken decisively and both the 20-day and the 50-day moving averages are trending down.
I would advise caution though (as in: don't go and short 10,000 shares right this second). The 200-day has not started to turn down yet, the RSI is at potential snap back level and the 75 support is still within reach. So there could be some sort of rebound. Ideally, and to get deeper and deeper into the details, JCP would rally back to a turning 200-day Moving Average and then head back down again. I'd give the odds at 50/50 of JCP breaking here for good vs having a last gasp. So I'm short a little with a stop at 76.20.

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