June 21, 2007

The trading person's contrarian

Tim Knight, founder of Prophet.net, a very serious trader and the author of one of the best trading blogs out there, is of a bearish bent most of the time. He has therefore been used (with some success I must say) as a contrarian indicator by a few wily traders. Two weeks ago, for example, after the market rolled over following the lead of treasury bonds, he was jumping up and down bearish and utilizing his sentiment as a contrarian indicator paid off. Now the situation is very different. Yesterday's action was, to say the least, very preoccupying for the bulls. They're all afraid to even think about it let alone utter it, but the expression "double-top" is on their mind. Yet Tim, as his entry yesterday indicates, is only "cautiously bearish" and his sentiment is imbued with new found humility and all sorts of caveats.
That, my friends, is problematic for the Tim contrarians out there. Is it time to be the contrarian's contrarian?
Market action today and tomorrow should go a long way in answering this question.

1 comment:

Tim Knight said...

That's right. When I become my own contrary indicator, it's going to bug the hell out of the bulls.

I should get a "Fade Me" shirt or something.