April 2, 2008

Fed Oversight

I'm listening (distractedly) to the Q & A session part of the Bernanke Congress testimony and something funny happened. One smiling, seemingly innocuous, congresswoman asks him a question to the effect that every time he has lowered interest rates lately, the stock market (she specifically mentioned a "New York Stock Exchange index" she follows) seems to take it well at first, goes up strongly but then a few days later retreats and falters to the point where it finds itself lower than at the time of the rate cut. And this is the funny part: in his answer, some boilerplate to the effect that rate cuts take time to take effect, he didn't even bother pointing out that the Fed's rate cut policy is not aimed at propping up the stock market. So was it just an oversight on his part or is it that he so internalized the fact that the Fed does in fact monitor, react to and target the stock market (even though it's not in its mandate and that previous Fed officials have always denied it) that he just didn't pick up on the congresswoman's implication that the Fed's only reason for cutting rates is to support the stock market?

3 comments:

Anonymous said...

Dude,

Nice blog site.


I dig your insights.

Nice call back on the 20th. A little tough sledding along the way, but seems like it is almost always like that.

Good luck with the trading.

Isam Laroui said...

Thanks Bud Fox, much appreciated.
I know, this GS isn't exactly going straight up. The good thing though is there seems to be decent support above 160.

Anonymous said...

The success of your call can be looked at in two ways.

Unless I have a bad tick - the 3/24 high in GS was 184 and change vs. a 179 opening. So you had significant bullish price action immediately after the call. It was not sustained, but that is relevant for some (longer-term players, swing traders and etc.) but not for others (astute intraday guys scouting for a rally).

You mentioned that this is a "powerful" - and presumably uncommon - reversal signal. The other way to use it is to take break outs over the previous days high a lot more seriously than usual. Again, there was some short-term bullish success on 3/24, but even more sustaninable success on the 4/1 rally.

Anyway, however one goes about it - thinking "bull" in GS vs. "bear" since 3/20 seems to have been the best idea. That's the bulk of what you get from good technical analysis.

BTW - I found my way here via Adam Warner's spot. Glad you featured him today.

Be Well.

CS