April 24, 2008

Time To Get Short Again

For those astute market players who are of the opinion that the current financial and economic troubles are far from over and that we are in a bone fide bear market, this daily chart of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (click to enlarge) would:
1. confirm that opinion
2. seem to indicate that now would not be such a bad spot to add to an existing short position if not initiate a brand new one.

We are getting tantalizingly close to:
1. the psychologically important 13,000 level
2. a rapidly falling 200-day simple moving average (now very close to ....the 13,000 level)
3. a previous significant support line, broken in early 2008 and now a significant resistance line.

I am forgetting the 14-day RSI, very close to 60 which is usually as high as the RSI gets in a bear market.

On the sentiment side, it appears the gloominess has lifted considerably after the Google earnings blowout (I'm just echoing the fundamentalists here), a rather bearish development in a bear market.

Should the Dow convincingly break above both 13,000 and its 200-day SMA I might regret this post...

No comments: