January 15, 2009

Head and Shoulder Bottom, Follow-up


As a quick but urgent follow-up to a previous post, it is now obvious after yesterday's rout that the potential head and shoulder bottom scenario as I imagined it has unraveled. The breakout above 90 did happen but it turned out to be a head fake. The rationale behind being long having been smashed to smithereens, bailing out of that position would be the disciplined thing to do.
What is going to happen now? I have no idea. Some people think that a failed signal is often a very strong signal that the opposite of what was supposed to happen will happen, in this case SPY should go down hard, but it's mostly anecdotal evidence so I personally would wait and see what develops.

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