January 6, 2009

Randomness and Quackery

Many people equate random with non-predictable and reflexively consider anyone claiming to have an insight into future prices a quack.

However, it has never been demonstrated that prices can never be predicted, only that they can't be easily predicted, all the time. It kind of makes sense to me that there are some windows of opportunity where prices are easier to predict than others. Talented traders/analysts will find more of those windows of opportunity and profit more from them than less talented ones.

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