Yes It Is a Big Deal

Not to pick on Michael Santoli - because he's one of the more perceptive guys on the Barron's editorial staff - but he's been a pretty reliable contrarian indicator for the past year or so.

His latest column, wondering "Is Big Runup That Big a Deal?", should therefore be added to the bearish side of the sentiment ledger.

If, as we stay range-bound, more and more people come out of the woodwork and declare the 40% bull move we've had since March "not a big deal", "absolutely normal", "a prelude to things to come" or words to that effect, the odds of the market breaking down rather than out will increase markedly.