Where are we, market-wise?

This is the 30-minute bar chart of SPY (the S&P 500 ETF) since 5/2 (click to enlarge).

So basically, for all the gyrations of the past few weeks, we're pretty much where we were almost 2 months ago. The market has been trapped in a 149-154 range.

The orange line is the 20-day simple moving average, a very useful measure of the intermediate-term trend. It has started, for the past 2 days, to turn down which is a fairly bearish sign (again on an intermediate-term basis, not a long-term basis).

The 149 support level is therefore all the more important. If it breaks, the fall will be nasty and quick and I don't see it stopping before the 200-day moving average at around 143.